Visual Inference for the Funnel Plot in Meta-Analysis

Abstract

Abstract. The funnel plot is widely used in meta-analyses to assess potential publication bias. However, experimental evidence suggests that informal, mere visual, inspection of funnel plots is frequently prone to incorrect conclusions, and formal statistical tests (Egger regression and others) entirely focus on funnel plot asymmetry. We suggest using the visual inference framework with funnel plots routinely, including for didactic purposes. In this framework, the type I error is controlled by design, while the explorative, holistic, and open nature of visual graph inspection is preserved. Specifically, the funnel plot of the actually observed data is presented simultaneously, in a lineup, with null funnel plots showing data simulated under the null hypothesis. Only when the real data funnel plot is identifiable from all the funnel plots presented, funnel plot-based conclusions might be warranted. Software to implement visual funnel plot inference is provided via a tailored R function.