Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has greatly influenced society in the past few years. Park accessibility and social distancing are considered important under the threat of a long-term epidemic. However, measures that can maintain park accessibility and diminish virus spreading synchronously have been seldom studied before, which may threaten public health in all major urban parks globally. This paper proposed a methodology based on an agent-based model to analyze capacities for parks by simulating park visitor behaviors when they all are social distancing. The model was derived from historical visitor data and realistic visitor behaviors in three park settings. Then, park capacities of varied contact conditions, different park policies, and layout adjustments were analyzed. First, congestions caused by social distancing without proper visitor control are found inside all parks. Second, 85 to 3972 square meters per person is predicted as a safe space in different parks. Third, the current results can be easily adjusted according to various concerns regarding infection distance and rate. Finally, it can be inferred that information provisions are more effective than space design adjustments and mandatory measures. The results can guide park managers and those who plan and design park settings. They are also helpful in improving knowledge of the mechanisms behind visitor behaviors. Moreover, these findings can be tested and verified in a variety of public spaces with many other contact-based illnesses.
Highlights
Since 2019, there have been more than 167 million confirmed infections and 3 million deaths to 25 May 2021 caused by COVID-19 outbreaks globally [1]
There is a high risk of COVID-19 spreading in urban parks
Adequate social distancing measures can only be maintained if the visitor numbers are strictly controlled
Summary
Since 2019, there have been more than 167 million confirmed infections and 3 million deaths to 25 May 2021 caused by COVID-19 outbreaks globally [1]. The constant outbreaks in different regions and potential virus mutation which may escape from the vaccine [6] make the world under a consistent threat of epidemic. As a kind of public space, can be both a potential virus transmission zone and the keystone of general public health. Urban parks were closed during the strict quarantine in China [7,8], and they were partially inaccessible due to shelter-in-place orders in the USA. Some researchers believed that parks are important for physical activities, which will help people fight against COVID-19 [9]. Under the continuous threats of COVID-19 [10], long-term quarantine that includes park closure may be impractical, since the benefits of physical activity in parks for both mental and physical health is well established.
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