Vision 2023: Scrutinizing achievability of Turkey's electricity capacity targets and generating scenario based nationwide electricity demand forecasts

Abstract

In the last couple of years, Turkey faced serious economic and geopolitical problems. As a result, many from the academia and industry now have suspicions about the viability of Turkey's Vision 2023 electricity targets. Consequently, in this study an up to date forecast of Turkey's electricity demand till 2023 is generated and achievability of the Vision 2023 electricity capacity targets are scrutinized. Turkey's electricity demand till 2023 is forecasted using the semi-empirical electricity demand model generated in this study. Different average % annual electricity demand per capita growth scenarios are used for the electricity demand modelling. Results from the modelling study showed that Turkey's electricity demand in 2023 could be 327,000 GWh if the very low demand scenario occurs or 362,000 GWh if the low demand growth scenario prevails or 386,000 GWh if the medium demand growth scenario succeeds or 429,000 GWh if the high demand growth scenario happens. The demand forecasts generated in this study match 94.3% (or higher) with previous forecasts found from the literature. The scrutiny showed that wind energy installed capacity in 2023 (estimated at nearly 11,000 MW) might be significantly lower than the official target of 20,000 MW. It is also pinpointed that one nuclear power plant might become operational (25% operational – one out of four units/reactors) instead of the planned two in 2023. Putting these potential target deviations aside, the scrutiny showed that Turkey's installed capacity in 2023 would most probably be greater than 110,000 MW and might in fact reach to the planned 120,000 MW. This is an important finding for policy analysts and researchers. Finally, it is suggested that the work on Turkey's energy projects must be accelerated and some of the Vision 2023 installed capacity targets (wind and nuclear) should be revised by the authorities.