Visibility graph network analysis of natural gas price: The case of North American market

Abstract

Abstract Fluctuations in prices of natural gas significantly affect global economy. Therefore, the research on the characteristics of natural gas price fluctuations, turning points and its influencing cycle on the subsequent price series is of great significance. Global natural gas trade concentrates on three regional markets: the North American market, the European market and the Asia-Pacific market, with North America having the most developed natural gas financial market. In addition, perfect legal supervision and coordinated regulations make the North American market more open and more competitive. This paper focuses on the North American natural gas market specifically. The Henry Hub natural gas spot price time series is converted to a visibility graph network which provides a new direction for macro analysis of time series, and several indicators are investigated: degree and degree distribution, the average shortest path length and community structure. The internal mechanisms underlying price fluctuations are explored through the indicators. The results show that the natural gas prices visibility graph network (NGP-VGN) is of small-world and scale-free properties simultaneously. After random rearrangement of original price time series, the degree distribution of network becomes exponential distribution, different from the original ones. This means that, the original price time series is of long-range negative correlation fractal characteristic. In addition, nodes with large degree correspond to significant geopolitical or economic events. Communities correspond to time cycles in visibility graph network. The cycles of time series and the impact scope of hubs can be found by community structure partition.