Viscoelastic Modeling of Nocturnal Thermal Fracturing in a Himalayan Debris‐Covered Glacier

Abstract

Recent observations suggest that the nocturnal thermal fracturing of ice occurs at relatively warm temperatures (above −15 °C) at a high‐altitude Himalayan glacier system unless the ice is shielded by a debris mantle. Here we estimate the stresses induced by diurnal temperature variations using viscous, elastic, and two viscoelastic models, and various thicknesses of the debris mantle. Only the elastic and visco‐elastic models are in agreement with the observations. The timing and amplitudes of the stresses in the upper 15 cm of the glacier are different among the models despite the ability of each approach to predict a diurnal increase in tension exceeding the critical threshold proposed for crevasse formation. For example, the elastic stress is several times larger than the viscous stress at the ice surface (650 vs. 250 kPa) and reaches its peak up to 5–6 hr later in the night. The time lag is in line with the seismic records, suggesting that the viscous model is not appropriate. Furthermore, a debris layer of ≥50 cm in thickness suppresses the diurnal fluctuations in thermal stress and therefore protects the ice from mechanical damage. We suggest that high‐amplitude diurnal cooling and weak ice properties due to weathering are essential factors that influence thermal fracturing in the Himalayan environment. The ongoing expansion of seismic networks into cryospheric regions, which will be capable of detecting local thermal‐contraction‐induced cracks, in combination with the fact that such cracks can erode and weaken the ice, and thereby serve as meltwater and heat channels, warrants further research to better understand these near‐surface processes and to monitor ice properties.