Virtual Net Propagator: A cloud-based computational tool for systemic decision propagation analysis

Abstract

Today’s organizations are witnessing a growing complexity in making interconnected decisions. Where individuals have a wider range of decisions to influence, the consequence of decisions far more propagate across the system, and the business environment continually influences the status of the system. Predicting the cascading effects of decisions in such situations would be very problematic yet can have several implications for managers and executives to think beyond organizational silos and make local decision with a bigger picture of emergent consequences in mind. A prominent challenge within this realm is the ever-increasing complexity of decision propagations, especially when incorporating the role and influence of people involved in decision-making. This paper tackles this challenge from an engineering change perspective, with the focus on computing the compound risk of decisions when their consequences concurrently propagate across the system. We introduce an interactive tool called Virtual Net Propagator, which incorporates organizational dynamics into decision analysis, with the aim to identify change opportunities and effective set of interventions. Illustrated by a field engineering case study, it is demonstrated that the proposed tool can provide detailed knowledge on how decisions are interconnected and how systemic (cascading) effects of a decision propagate through causal pathways, so highlighting key influencers along with role and influence of interfacing (hidden) players.