Viral suppression among persons in HIV care in the United States during 2009–2013: sampling bias in Medical Monitoring Project surveillance estimates

Abstract

PurposeTo assess sampling bias in national viral suppression (VS) estimates derived from the Medical Monitoring Project (MMP) resulting from use of an abbreviated (four-month) annual sampling period. We aimed to improve VS estimates using cohort data from the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) and a novel cohort-adjustment method. MethodsUsing full calendar years of NA-ACCORD data, we assessed timing of HIV care attendance (inside vs. exclusively outside MMP's four-month sampling period), VS status at last test (<200 vs. ≥200 copies/mL), and associated demographics. These external estimates were used to standardize MMP to NA-ACCORD data with multivariable regression models of care attendance and VS, yielding adjusted 2009–2013 VS estimates with 95% confidence intervals. ResultsWeighted percentages of VS among persons in HIV care were 67% in 2009 and 77% in 2013. These estimates are slightly lower than previously published MMP estimates (72% and 80% in 2009 and 2013, respectively). The number of persons receiving HIV care was previously underestimated by 20%, because patients receiving care exclusively outside the MMP sampling period did not contribute toward the weighted population estimate. ConclusionsCareful examination of national surveillance estimates using data triangulation and novel methodologies can improve the robustness of VS estimates.