Viral population dynamics and virulence thresholds

Abstract

Viral factors and host barriers influence virally induced disease, and asymptomatic versus symptomatic infection is governed by a 'virulence threshold'. Understanding modulation of virulence thresholds could lend insight into disease outcome and aid in rational therapeutic and vaccine design. RNA viruses are an excellent system to study virulence thresholds in the context of quasispecies population dynamics. RNA viruses have high error frequencies and our understanding of viral population dynamics has been shaped by quasispecies evolutionary theory. In turn, research using RNA viruses as replicons with short generation times and high mutation rates has been an invaluable tool to test models of quasispecies theory. The challenge and new frontier of RNA virus population dynamics research is to combine multiple theoretical models and experimental data to describe viral population behavior as it changes, moving within and between hosts, to predict disease and pathogen emergence. Several excellent studies have begun to undertake this challenge using novel approaches.