Viral diffusion of technology products: a comprehensive stage framework

Abstract

The level of viral diffusion expected after a technology product or service is launched is important for determining the marketing budget, forecasting revenue, and understanding the resources necessary to manufacture and/or support the technology. Based on a review of academic and industry literature, this study proposes the “Comprehensive Framework of Viral Technology Diffusion—Stages and Factors.” The framework specifically draws on stage models developed by Wiedemann et al. (Wiedemann DG, Palka W, Pousttchi K (2008) Understanding the determinants of mobile viral effects-towards a grounded theory of mobile viral marketing. Paper presented at the 2008 7th international conference on mobile business) and Phelps et al. (Phelps et al., J Advert Res 44:333–348, 2004), other academic and industry viral marketing literature, and information systems literature including theories widely used in IS research, such as reasoned actioned (Fishbein and Ajzen Fishbein and Ajzen, Intention and behavior: an introduction to theory and research, Addison-Wesley, MA, 1975), Technology Acceptance Model (Davis 1989; Davis et al. 1989) and planned behavior (Ajzen Ajzen, I. (1985). From intentions to actions: a theory of planned behavior. In: Action control, Springer. New York, Ajzen, Organ Behav Hum Decis Process 50:179–211, 1991). It details five major stages of viral diffusion campaigns, their relationships to each other, and relevant findings from the literature. The five stages recognized are: content development; virality prediction; seed engagement; content propagation; and virality response. Each stage has been identified in prior studies; however, no comprehensive framework of these constructs, nor their relationships to one another, has so far been found. Some important factors included are, for example, at the propagation stage, consideration of the networks through which viral propagation occur and potential transmission costs faced by content forwarders. Our framework contributes to the literature by providing an outline and related set of factors that may be useful for understanding and positioning future research on viral marketing and may also help practitioners who seek to launch products virally. We also offer directions for future research.