Violent Conflicts and ‘Early Warning and Risk Analysis’ in Post Covid-19: An Analytical Framework

Abstract

Covid-19 has exacerbated violence in Kashmir, Syria, Palestine, and Afghanistan. Direct and structural violence, through discriminatory policies, has increased the risk of the humanitarian crisis in Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. A few examples of this include the communication blockade in the Indian occupied Kashmir [IOK] and Palestine, supply of expired Covid vaccines to Palestine by Israel, and no provision of vaccination for the Balukhali Rohingya refugee camp in Bangladesh. During Covid-19, these communities have also been suffering due to insufficient health care facilities besides violence. Considering that the international community invests substantially to develop Early Warning and Risk Analysis (EWRA; such as hotline communication between rival states) to gauge the 'traditional military threats' related to the nuclear states. This study focuses on developing a customized EWRA that can help countries prevent the vulnerabilities of violent conflicts during Covid-19. It argues that EWRA only helps prevent a violent conflict but does not aim to provide solutions to the conflicts. The article takes a generic approach to violent conflicts, building on how Covid-19 has increased direct and structural violence in those areas. The study, with a qualitative exploratory approach, offers unique contribution to the literature. First, it is an original contribution to the literature on conflict prevention as no EWRA is suggested to deal with the combined threats of Covid-19 and violent conflicts. Second, it evolves a discussion on paradigm shifts from geo-politics/geo-economics (during post 9-11 era) to geo-humanism in the postCovid-19 period.