Abstract
Gerbner and Gross’s cultivation theory predicts that prolonged exposure to TV violence creates fear of crime, symptomatic of a mean world syndrome. We tested the theory’s prediction in a time series model with annual changes in violence portrayal on popular US TV shows from 1972 to 2010 as a predictor of changes in public perceptions of local crime rates and fear of crime. We found that contrary to the prediction that TV violence would affect perceptions of crime rates, TV violence directly predicted fear of crime holding constant national crime rates and perceptions of crime rates. National crime rates predicted fear of crime but only as mediated by perceptions of local crime rates. The findings support an interpretation of cultivation theory that TV drama transports viewers into a fictive world that creates fear of crime but without changing perceptions of a mean world.
Highlights
Cultivaton theory, developed by Gerbner and Gross (1976) and colleagues (Gerbner, Gross, Morgan, Signorielli, & Shanahan, 2002), is among the three most cited theories in communication research (Bryant & Miron, 2004)
Further criticism of cultivation theory came from Hughes (1980) and Hirsch (1980, 1981), who reanalyzed the surveys analyzed by Gerbner and colleagues and found that cultivation effects were no longer present after demographic controls were added
It is noteworthy that the FBI national crime rate was inversely related to the TV violence rate (r = -0.483) but positively related to fear (r = 0.388)
Summary
Cultivaton theory, developed by Gerbner and Gross (1976) and colleagues (Gerbner, Gross, Morgan, Signorielli, & Shanahan, 2002), is among the three most cited theories in communication research (Bryant & Miron, 2004). Further criticism of cultivation theory came from Hughes (1980) and Hirsch (1980, 1981), who reanalyzed the surveys analyzed by Gerbner and colleagues and found that cultivation effects were no longer present after demographic controls were added They argued instead that evidence of cultivation could be explained by patterns of TV viewing by various demographic groups (e.g., those of low income or low education) that were more likely to mistrust others. Most of the research included in the analysis was cross-sectional It remains an open question whether the effects of TV viewing on fear of crime are attributable to TV content or are the result of confounds from subsets of the population more inclined to watch shows that feature crime (e.g., police dramas or local news) and more likely to be fearful apart from TV exposure
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