Violence and electoral polarization in divided societies: Three cases in comparative perspective

Abstract

Three elections, all of which took place at the end of May 1996, are examined in order to analyze the impact of violence on political attitudes in deeply divided societies. They are the Israeli general election of 29 May 1996; the Northern Ireland forum elections of 30 May 1996; and local elections in the Western Cape province in South Africa on 29 May 1996. It is argued that what the outcome of the elections in Israel and Northern Ireland demonstrates is the capacity of the continuing threat of violence (and not just actual episodes of violence) to polarize opinion even in the context of ongoing peace processes. Further, it is argued that fear of change may influence the electoral behaviour of members of the dominant (or previously dominant) community as profoundly as the prospect or even the reality of an end to the conflict, as the case of the local elections in the Western Cape underlines.