Violence and Elections: Will Kenya Collapse?

Abstract

Great Lakes region of Africa, recently experienced violence of alarming proportions. After the contested presidential elections on December 27, 2007, hundreds were killed, thousands wounded, and hundreds of thousands displaced; property and infrastructure worth billions were destroyed. Kenyans, who voted peacefully and in unprecedented large numbers, were shocked and enraged first by the fraudulent election and then by the violence that terrorized large parts of the country. International observers seemed similarly stunned and unsure of how to respond; long considered the stable country in a region wracked by war, Kenya’s violence has serious implications for the entire East Africa/Great Lakes region. Much of the commentary and analysis so far has focused on the fraudulent election and hasty declaration of incumbent Mwai Kibaki as president. Yet, the violent events following the election were by no means necessary or pre-ordained. How do we understand this violence? What does it mean for the future of the country and the region? Will Kenya share the bloody fate of its neighbors? Kenya is a regional UN hub, home to numerous refugees and an important economic player in East Africa. If it is headed towards war and disintegration, then the entire region, and indeed the world, will be deeply and adversely impacted. Few dispute that the election was flawed. European Union observers and Kenyan election monitors reported many anomalies: unusually high voter turn out, lack of access to voting centers, names missing from registers, questionable voting hours, party agents and police officers killed. Most important, the government body tasked with overseeing the election, the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) showed clear signs of manipulating the vote counting with bias towards the government. As a result, the ECK chairman says he does not know who actually won the presidential election. Five ECK commissioners distanced themselves from the announced results. Reportedly, both President Mwai Kibaki’s Party of National Unity (PNU) and Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) rigged votes in their strongholds. Both parties maintained they won, but under pressure the ECK declared Kibaki winner; on December 30, 2007, he was sworn in as president in a secretive ceremony. Violence followed quickly. Much analysis has focused on the rigging and the jostling for power between two powerful leaders and their ethnic followers—Mwai Kibaki (Kikuyu) and Raila Odinga (Luo). The Kikuyu are Kenya’s largest ethnic community (about 22 percent of the total population). Among many others are the Luhya (14 percent), Luo (13 percent), Kalenjin (12 percent), and Kamba (11 percent). Politicians used ethnicity to mobilize votes and deliberately create divisions between the Kikuyu, who voted largely for the Party for National Jacqueline Klopp is an assistant professor of international and public affairs at Columbia University. She works pro bono for the Internally Displaced Persons Network in Kenya and has written on violence and displacement in democratization in Africa.