Vine Copula Models with GLM and Sparsity

Abstract

Vine copula provides a flexible tool to capture asymmetry in modelling multivariate distributions. Nevertheless, its flexibility is achieved at the expense of exponentially increasing complexity of the model. To alleviate this issue, the simplifying assumption (SA) is commonly adapted in specific applications of vine copula models. In this paper, generalized linear models (GLMs) are proposed for the parameters in conditional bivariate copulas to relax the SA. In the spirit of the principle of parsimony, a regularization methodology is developed to control the number of parameters, leading to sparse vine copula models. The conventional vine copula with the SA, the proposed GLM-based vine copula and the sparse vine copula are applied to several financial datasets, and the results show that our proposed models outperform the one with SA significantly in terms of the Bayesian information criterion.