Viewpoint: Climate change and planning: responding to the challenge

Abstract

Climate is the typical behaviour of the atmosphere. It is usually described in terms of mean (or average) conditions and variations about these conditions, including extreme events and the frequency of their occurrence (Wuebbles and Edmonds, 1991). Climate change, then, is change in the average behaviour of the atmosphere as well as change in the patterns of variation around this behaviour. Climate scientists are as much, if not more, concerned about changes in variability as they are about changes in average conditions; changes in variability may entail fundamental changes in our knowledge base. Climate change is real, has been going on since the earth was formed, and is anticipated to continue for the foreseeable future. Since the industrial revolution, however, much of the change in climate has been discernibly induced by human activity and, in particular, activity producing emissions of so-called 'greenhouse gases' (GHGs) carbon monoxide, methane, nitrous oxide and fluorinated gases. It is anticipated that anthropogenic climate change will have consequences for human health, ecosystems, economic activity, and social wellbeing that are on the whole more negative than positive.1 The human beings who appear to be most vulnerable to climate change are low-income and minority populations living in societies with developed economies, especially in coastal areas, and populations in countries with developing economies in equatorial latitudes. It may be too late to avert such near-term effects of climate change as unusual fluctuations in temperature, the increased incidence of extreme weather events, persisting droughts in Australia, sub-Saharan Africa and other areas, flooding in coastal areas, and melting of glaciers and sea level rise, which may cover low-lying land masses such as islands in the South Pacific. But scientists (and environmental economists) generally agree that it is not too late to ward off possibly irreversible changes in climate and quality of life for future generations through efforts to mitigate emissions and adapt to the effects of climate change (Stern et al., 2006). Contributors to the Stern Review believe that mitigation of and adaptation to climate change can be brought about through a combination of command-and-control and market-inducement policies. They also estimate that the cost of effective mitigation and adaptation