Vietnam’s Seafoood Imports Under the Impact of the United Kingdom–Vietnam Free Trade Agreement

Abstract

This paper assesses the potential impacts of the UK-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (UKVFTA) on Vietnam's seafood imports from the UK by adopting the SMART model based on two scenarios. The simulation results reveal that the UKVFTA will result in a significant increase in Vietnam's seafood imports from the UK, implying that the UK will be still one of the most important seafood for Vietnam in the upcoming time. When Vietnam also extends its coverage of tariff elimination to ASEAN+5 including China Japan, South Korea, India, Australia—New Zealand having signed an FTA with ASEAN to which Vietnam is a country member, the reduction in Vietnam’s seafood imports from the UK will occur but it will be very inconsiderable. Besides, in both scenarios, trade creation effects will be higher than trade diversion effects meaning that the UKVFTA can raise the welfare of Vietnam. Based on these results, the paper ends by drawing out some implications for the Vietnamese government to be better implementing the ambitious UKVFTA.