Vietnam 1992: Economic Growth and Political Caution

Abstract

Major political events took place in Vietnam in 1992, such as the much publicized revision of the constitution and the elections for the ninth National Assembly. These have been presented both in and outside Vietnam as significant efforts at political reform, a process which the Vietnam Communist Party (VCP) is pledged to undertake. However, a detailed analysis of both events would show the party to be guided more by circumspection than by any democratic inclination. Such a cautionary trend has set in since the collapse of socialism in Eastern Europe in 1989, and was exacerbated by the 1991 disintegration of the Soviet Union. However, the political will to allow market experiments remains strong, and economic reforms have moved ahead with some impressive results. Indeed, what marked the year was the economic performance, which saw, for the first time in several decades, Vietnam doing well on several major indicators. This merits a sense of confidence that the country is overcoming rather than being overwhelmed by its socio-economic problems. Nevertheless, it is early days yet to conclude that the conditions for long term growth and macro-economic stability are well in place. In the field of foreign policy, significant strides were made as Vietnam pursued pragmatic diplomacy aimed at fostering economic development. However, a level of uncertainty continues to bedevil Sino-Vietnamese relations, while another source of concern for the leadership in Hanoi is the volatile situation in neighbouring Cambodia.