Victorian Probability and Lewis Carroll

Abstract

SummaryIn the controversial application of inverse probability reasoning, the prior probability of a hypothesis or cause is modified on the basis of an experimental observation to a posterior probability. A contentious issue is the probabilistic expression of prior belief, especially of prior ignorance, which impinges on the nature of probability. The probability work of Todhunter, Crofton and Cook Wilson spans the period from 1876, the expressed beginning of C. L. Dodgson’s interest in this issue, to 1893 when Lewis Carroll’s Pillow Problems appeared. The present study amplifies the connections and broadens the study of Victorian probability in its social milieu by bringing to light less-studied sources.