Abstract

Abstract. Food supply is affected by a complex nexus of land, atmosphere, and human processes, including short- and long-term stressors (e.g., drought and climate change, respectively). A simulation platform that captures these complex elements can be used to inform policy and best management practices to promote sustainable agriculture. We have developed a tightly coupled framework using the macroscale variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrologic model and the CropSyst agricultural model. A mechanistic irrigation module was also developed for inclusion in this framework. Because VIC–CropSyst combines two widely used and mechanistic models (for crop phenology, growth, management, and macroscale hydrology), it can provide realistic and hydrologically consistent simulations of water availability, crop water requirements for irrigation, and agricultural productivity for both irrigated and dryland systems. This allows VIC–CropSyst to provide managers and decision makers with reliable information on regional water stresses and their impacts on food production. Additionally, VIC–CropSyst is being used in conjunction with socioeconomic models, river system models, and atmospheric models to simulate feedback processes between regional water availability, agricultural water management decisions, and land–atmosphere interactions. The performance of VIC–CropSyst was evaluated on both regional (over the US Pacific Northwest) and point scales. Point-scale evaluation involved using two flux tower sites located in agricultural fields in the US (Nebraska and Illinois). The agreement between recorded and simulated evapotranspiration (ET), applied irrigation water, soil moisture, leaf area index (LAI), and yield indicated that, although the model is intended to work on regional scales, it also captures field-scale processes in agricultural areas.

Highlights

  • Projected increases in food demand (Godfray et al, 2010) along with other stressors such as droughts and extreme heat events contribute to threats to global food supply (Wheeler and von Braun, 2013)

  • One explanation for this bias is that we do not consider the feedback of evaporative losses from irrigation droplets (Ed) and canopy-intercepted water (Ec) to the local microclimate system, while in reality these evaporative losses will lower ambient temperature and decrease vapor pressure deficit (VPD)

  • The results presented in this article do not include results related to deficit irrigation during times of water shortage, variable infiltration capacity (VIC)–CropSyst is able to simulate the impacts of deficit irrigation on hydrologic and cropping systems

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Summary

Introduction

Projected increases in food demand (Godfray et al, 2010) along with other stressors such as droughts and extreme heat events contribute to threats to global food supply (Wheeler and von Braun, 2013). Despite existing research on food scarcity, there are still unanswered questions about the relationship between food supply and the nexus of water resources, agriculture, and human decisions. How expectations of future climatic conditions influence farmer behaviour, such as capital-intensive switches in technology or cropping systems, is not well understood. K. Malek et al.: VIC–CropSyst-v2: A regional-scale modeling platform to simulate the nexus of climate

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