Viable Republicans or fool's gold? The consequences of confusing Latino respondents with Latino voters

Abstract

Consistent survey evidence supports the notion that Latinos are more ideologically conservative than their party identification would predict, making them ripe for party switching. However, when controlling for citizenship, generational differences, and policy attitudes, the partisan picture looks much different and much less optimistic for Republicans hoping to keep Latino voters “in-play.” Much of this puzzle is caused by a lingering confusion about Latino respondents versus Latino voters. Socially conservative Latino respondents are much more likely to be non-citizens and non-voters, providing them with little plausible electoral role. Previous research has underestimated this problem because scholars have been more interested in the acquisition of Latino partisanship, regardless of whether the respondents are viable voters or not. Using the 2006 Latino National Survey I demonstrate that ignoring citizenship and voting likelihood produces the misleading (but venerable) truism that conservative Latinos are available Republican voters.