Veto Players and Technologies of Rebellion Determinants of Civil War Duration

Abstract

Why do some civil wars continue for decades, while others end within months? Two factors have recently been identified as major predictors of the duration of intrastate conflicts. 1. The presence of a greater number of “veto players,” actors who must approve a settlement or cease-fire, contributes to longer civil wars. 2. The relative capacities of states and rebels. Irregular, or “guerrilla wars,” between weak rebels and a superiorly armed state tend to last significantly longer than symmetrical conflicts where rebels and the state are more evenly matched. Additionally, wars where both rebels and the state are matched at a low level and rely predominantly on small arms (symmetrical non-conventional or SNC wars), also tend to last longer than conventionally fought civil wars. This paper attempts to answer the question: are irregular and SNC wars longer because they tend to have more veto players? My findings show that irregular and SNC wars do not tend to produce more veto players than conventional wars. Variations in civil war duration across these categories cannot be explained by differences in the number of veto players that emerge.