Abstract
In conditions of development of generating facilities on renewable energy sources, the technology runs up to uncertainty in the operational and short-term planning of the power system operating modes. To date, reliable tools for forecasting the generation of solar power stations are required. This paper considers the methodology of operational forecasting of solar power stations output based on the mathematical apparatus of cubic exponential smoothing with trend and seasonal components. The presented methodology was tested based on the measuring data of a real solar power station. The average forecast error was not more than 10% for days with variable clouds and not more than 3% for clear days, which indicates the effectiveness of the proposed approach.
Highlights
In conditions of the energy market development, the role of effective management tasks at all levels – the power station, the power system, the power pool system – is immeasurably increasing
The effectiveness of the operational optimal control of the power system mode is firstly determined by the correctness and accuracy of the forecast for the power stations generation and the load power
It is required to obtain reference data on the solar power station generation for the day X+1, X+2,..., X+N, depending on the availability of relevant weather forecast data provided by the weather provider
Summary
In conditions of the energy market development, the role of effective management tasks at all levels – the power station, the power system, the power pool system – is immeasurably increasing. Taking into account the nature of the wholesale electricity market in the UES of Russia, the short-term forecasting of solar power stations generation is considered in terms of the application on the day-ahead market. The task of operational forecasting is considered in terms of filing applications on a balancing market for the hour, as well as for obtaining reference data on the solar power station generation for several hours ahead. In a number of works, it is proposed to use specialized measuring instruments that allow quickly assessing the weather conditions The use of these methods, as a rule, is limited by the characteristics of the weather data being analyzed, or requires additional investments for the installation of meteorological measuring posts. Systematic error values associated with underestimation or revaluation of output
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