Very-long-period oscillations in the atmosphere (0–110 km) – Part 2: Latitude– longitude comparisons and trends

Abstract

Abstract. Measurements of atmospheric temperatures show a variety of long-term oscillations. These can be simulated by computer models and exhibit multi-annual, decadal, and even centennial periods. They extend from the ground up to the lower thermosphere. Recent analyses have shown that they exist in the models even if the model boundaries are kept constant with respect to influences of the sun, ocean, and greenhouse gases. Therefore, these parameters appear not to be responsible for the excitation of these oscillations, i.e. the oscillations might be rather self-excited. However, influences of land surface and vegetation changes had not been entirely excluded. This is studied in the present analysis. It turns out that such influences might be active in the lowermost atmospheric levels. Long-term trends of atmospheric parameters such as the temperature are important for the understanding of the ongoing climate change. Their study is mostly based on data sets that are 1 to a few decades long. The trend values are generally small and so are the amplitudes of the long-period oscillations. It can therefore be difficult to disentangle these structures, especially if the interval of trend analysis is comparable to the period of the oscillations. If the oscillations are self-excited, there may be a non-anthropogenic contribution to the climate change which is difficult to determine. Long-term changes of the cold-point tropopause are analysed here as an example.