Very good partial remission predicts progression-free survival in patients with multiple myeloma

Abstract

Aim. To examine the role of very good partial response or better (VGPR+) as a surrogate predictor of progression-free survival (PFS) in multiple myeloma (MM) patients.Materials and methods. A systematic literature review of MEDLINE database (2010–2023) and materials presented at hematology and cancer congresses (2020–2022) was performed to identify studies reporting median progressionfree survival (PFS) and the rate of very good partial response (VGPR+). The study used Spearman’s weighted correlation and linear regression methods to analyze the association between median PFS and VGPR+. A total of 34,443 patients were involved in 182 original studies that included real-world clinical practice data.Results. Based on the number of patients or year of publication, the correlation between VGPR+ and median PFS was statistically significant (Spearman coefficient r = 0.61), but low. For refractory/recurrent MM (r = 0.69) and for monoclonal antibody therapy (r = 0.81), the correlation between VGPR+ and PFS was stronger. In addition to achieving VGPR+, the line of therapy and autologous stem cell transplantation also played an important role in determining PFS. Based on these factors, an increase of one percentage point in VGPR+ predicted a 0.21‑month increase in median PFS in the final adjusted linear regression model.Conclusion. In this study, VGPR+ was found to predict PFS, making it a universal early point of reference for MM prognosis regardless of the treatment type.