Verification of the RAMS-based operational weather forecast system in the Valencia Region: a seasonal comparison

Abstract

The meteorological model Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) in its version 4.4 has been applied operationally within the Valencia Region. The model output is being used as support for a heat-wave warning system, a wind forecasting system for fire warnings and prevention, and for general forecasting tasks. For the winter period of 2010–2011 and the summer period of 2011, the model version 6.0 has been included within the operational forecast environment. In this study, the verification of the model using both versions has been performed taking advantage of the automatic weather stations from the CEAM network and located within this area. Surface meteorological observations have been compared with the RAMS forecasts in an operational verification focused on computing different statistical data for coastal and inland stations. This verification process has been carried out both for the summer and the winter seasons of the year separately. As a result, it has been revealed that the model presents significant differences in the forecast of the meteorological variables analyzed throughout both periods of the year. Moreover, the model presents different degrees of accuracy between coastal and inland stations as well as for both versions of RAMS for the meteorological variables investigated. On the other hand, we have also found that there is little difference in the magnitudes analyzed within the two daily RAMS cycles and that RAMS is very stable in maintaining skillful forecast results at least for three forecast days, although the performance of the simulation slightly decreases as the simulation moves forward.