Verification of Rainfall Forecast in Latur District of Marathwada Region of Maharashtra

Abstract

Rainfall prediction and weather based advisories assist farmers in protecting their crops from weather threats and enhancing their economic benefits by recommending appropriate management techniques depending on weather conditions. In this study verification for rainfall forecast on annual and seasonal basis, for the period of 2015-2020 was done for Latur district. The verification analysis was carried out using various verification techniques, viz., Ratio Score (RS), Critical Success Index (CSI), Hanssen and Kupiers Score (HK), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and usability analysis. The results indicates that, rainfall accuracy reached its highest (88.76%) in 2018. And RS (88.21), CSI (0.75) and HK score (0.75) were observed highest during 2019. Among the seasons, rainfall accuracy was highest (96.91%) during winter season also the ratio score was observed highest during winter season (94.66) indicating the better skill of forecast, while, lowest with monsoon season. The highest HK score (0.66) was recorded in the post-monsoon season and CSI (0.72) in Monsoon season. That indicated good skill of the rainfall forecast during the period, while, poor skill of forecast was found with monsoon season. There is a need to investigate the reliability and suitability of medium-range weather forecasts in order to improve them further