Venous thromboembolism risk stratification for patients undergoing surgery for IBD using a novel six factor scoring system using NSQIP-IBD registry.

Abstract

Patients undergoing colorectal surgery for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) are recognized to have an increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). The aim of this study was to determine the perioperative risk factors for VTE and to create a predictive scoring system for VTE in the IBD cohort. The NSQIP-IBD Collaboration Registry from 2017 to 2020 was used to identify patients. Demographics, operative and outcomes data of IBD patients undergoing surgeries for IBD were analysed. A logistic multivariate regression model was performed using all significant variables to develop a predictive scoring system of VTE. Five-thousand and three patients (51.9% male, mean age: 42.7, 42.7% ulcerative colitis) were included in the study. 125 (2.49%) developed VTE. On multivariate analysis ASA grade, ulcerative colitis, sepsis, serum sodium <139 mmol/L, an open abdomen and preoperative inter hospital transfer were associated with greater risk of VTE. Using these 6 significant factors, a risk model was constructed. The risk of VTE with one risk factor was 0.7% and 1.8% with two risk factors. The risk of VTE increased to 3.6% and 4.5% with three and four risk factors respectively. With five and six risk factors, the risk of VTE increased exponentially to 10.9% and 25% respectively. This study shows that there are cumulative risk factors which increase the risk of VTE after surgery for IBD. The risk increases exponentially with more than five risk factors, and extended chemoprophylaxis may not be enough in reducing this risk.