Vehicle Stock Numbers and Survival Functions for On-Road Exhaust Emissions Analysis in India: 1993–2018

Abstract

Road transport plays a crucial role in sustaining all the personal and freight movement needs of residential, commercial, and industrial activities, and in Indian cities, big and small, vehicle exhaust emissions and dust from vehicle movement on the roads contribute to as much as 50% of particulate matter pollution in a year. Therefore, effective management of vehicle exhaust emissions is vital not only for improving current air quality but also for ensuring the long-term benefits from efforts to reduce air pollution. In the approved clean air action plans for 131 cities under the national clean air program (NCAP), more than 50% of the implementable actions are transport-centric. Having a reliable and replicable vehicle exhaust emissions inventory is essential for effective planning, which can help establish a baseline, support scenario analysis, and allow for tracking progress in the sector. This process begins with accessing accurate vehicle stock numbers, typically obtained from vehicle registration databases, traffic surveys, and other governmental records. Often, in low- and middle-income countries like India, these numbers require extensive data cleaning before they can be used for emissions and pollution analysis. This paper presents a cleaned, open-access vehicle stock database for India and outlines a methodology to build and maintain an in-use vehicle age-mix database for future years. The database covers the years 1993 to 2018 for the entire country and individual states, along with estimates of the age distribution of vehicles using survival functions. By offering a comprehensive and reliable data source, this paper aims to support sustainable national and urban air quality management efforts, helping policymakers and stakeholders make informed decisions to improve air quality and public health.