Vehicle attribute trade-offs to meet the 2025 CAFE fuel economy target

Abstract

The literature analyzes changes in vehicle attributes that can improve fuel economy to meet Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards. However, these analyses exclude either vehicle price, size, acceleration or technology advancement. A more comprehensive examination of the trade-offs among these attributes is needed, this case study focuses on technically feasible modifications to a reference 2012 vehicle to meet the 2025 fuel economy target. Scenarios developed to examine uncertainty in technology advancement indicate that expected technology cost reductions over time will be insufficient to offset the costs of additional fuel efficiency technologies that could be used to meet the 2025 fuel economy target while maintaining other vehicle attributes. The mid-price scenario results show the targeted 66% increase in fuel economy from 2012 to 2025 can be achieved with (i) a 10% ($2070) vehicle price increase (lightweight hybrid electric vehicle), (ii) a 31% (2.9second) increase in the 0–97km/h (60mph) acceleration time (smaller engine), or (iii) a 17% (700L) decrease in interior volume (smaller body) while maintaining other vehicle attributes. These results are consistent with those obtained using methods that generalize the US light-duty vehicle fleet, but are not a forecast of future vehicle attributes because combinations of less perceptible changes to vehicle price, acceleration and size would also be feasible. This study shows there are numerous ways that 2025 fuel economy targets can be met; therefore, the trade-offs quantified provide important insights on the implications of future CAFE standards.