Vegetation Stress Monitor—Assessment of Drought and Temperature-Related Effects on Vegetation in Germany Analyzing MODIS Time Series over 23 Years

Abstract

Over the past two decades, and particularly since 2018, Central Europe has experienced several droughts with strong impacts on ecosystems and food production. It is expected that under accelerating climate change, droughts and resulting vegetation and ecosystem stress will further increase. Against this background, there is a need for techniques and datasets that allow for monitoring of the timing, extent and effects of droughts. Vegetation indices (VIs) based on satellite Earth observation (EO) can be used to directly assess vegetation stress over large areas. Here, we use a MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) time series to analyze and characterize the vegetation stress on Germany’s croplands and grasslands that has occurred since 2000. A special focus is put on the years from 2018 to 2022, an extraordinary 5-year period characterized by a high frequency of droughts and heat waves. The study reveals strong variations in agricultural drought patterns during the past major drought years in Germany (such as 2003 or 2018), as well as large regional differences in climate-related vegetation stress. The northern parts of Germany showed a higher tendency to be affected by drought effects, particularly after 2018. Further, correlation analyses showed a strong relationship between annual yields of maize, potatoes and winter wheat and previous vegetation stress, where the timing of strongest relationships could be related to crop-specific development stages. Our results support the potential of VI time series for robustly monitoring and predicting effects of climate-related vegetation development and agricultural yields.