Vegetation Dynamics of Sub-Mediterranean Low-Mountain Landscapes under Climate Change (on the Example of Southeastern Crimea)

Abstract

In the context of a changing environment, understanding the interaction between vegetation and climate is crucial for assessing, predicting, and adapting to future changes in different vegetation types. Vegetation exhibits high sensitivity to external environmental factors, making this understanding particularly significant. This study utilizes geospatial analysis techniques, such as geographic information systems, to investigate vegetation dynamics based on remote sensing data and climatic variables, including annual air temperature, annual precipitation, and annual solar radiation. The research methodology encompasses data collection, processing, and analysis, incorporating multispectral imagery and multilayered maps of various parameters. The calculation of the normalized difference vegetation index serves to evaluate changes in vegetation cover, identify areas experiencing variations in green biomass, and establish strategies for the future development of different vegetation types. During the period from 2001 to 2022, the average normalized difference vegetation index value in the Southeastern Crimea region amounted to 0.443. The highest average values were recorded in the year 2006, reaching a magnitude of 0.469. Conversely, the lowest values were observed in the years 2001–2002, constituting 0.397. It has been ascertained that an overarching positive trend in the evolution of NDVI values from 2001 to 2022 is apparent, thus implying a notable augmentation in vegetative biomass. However, adversarial trends manifest in discrete locales adjacent to the cities of Sudak and Feodosia, along with the coastal stretches of the Black Sea. Correlation analysis is employed to establish relationships between vegetation changes and climatic indicators. The findings contribute to our understanding of the vulnerability of various vegetation types and ecosystems in the Southeastern Crimea region. The obtained data provide valuable insights for the development of sustainable vegetation resource management strategies and climate change adaptation in the region.