Abstract
A rapid warming in Himalayas is predicted to increase plant upper distributional limits, vegetation cover and abundance of species adapted to warmer climate. We explored these predictions in NW Himalayas, by revisiting uppermost plant populations after ten years (2003–2013), detailed monitoring of vegetation changes in permanent plots (2009–2012), and age analysis of plants growing from 5500 to 6150 m. Plant traits and microclimate variables were recorded to explain observed vegetation changes. The elevation limits of several species shifted up to 6150 m, about 150 vertical meters above the limit of continuous plant distribution. The plant age analysis corroborated the hypothesis of warming-driven uphill migration. However, the impact of warming interacts with increasing precipitation and physical disturbance. The extreme summer snowfall event in 2010 is likely responsible for substantial decrease in plant cover in both alpine and subnival vegetation and compositional shift towards species preferring wetter habitats. Simultaneous increase in summer temperature and precipitation caused rapid snow melt and, coupled with frequent night frosts, generated multiple freeze-thaw cycles detrimental to subnival plants. Our results suggest that plant species responses to ongoing climate change will not be unidirectional upward range shifts but rather multi-dimensional, species-specific and spatially variable.
Highlights
Potentially colonizable area is found above the current upper distributional limit of vascular plants within this region
To explore upward plant migration and susceptibility of the cold and dry region of Ladakh to climate change, we (1) revisit an area extensively surveyed 10 years ago to find possible outpost populations above the previously recorded altitudinal upper limit; (2) re-survey permanent plots established in the alpine and the subnival belt after 4 years characterized by unprecedented warming and extreme summer precipitation; (3) characterize plant morphological and ecophysiological adaptation to evaluate the biological mechanisms of vegetation changes; (4) perform anatomical determination of plant age and growth rate
We hypothesize that the ongoing climate warming has promoted uphill plant migration in this cold and dry region, so that absolute upper limits, species richness and cover of vascular plants increased in the past decade
Summary
Potentially colonizable area is found above the current upper distributional limit of vascular plants within this region. To explore upward plant migration and susceptibility of the cold and dry region of Ladakh to climate change, we (1) revisit an area extensively surveyed 10 years ago to find possible outpost populations above the previously recorded altitudinal upper limit; (2) re-survey permanent plots established in the alpine and the subnival belt after 4 years characterized by unprecedented warming and extreme summer precipitation; (3) characterize plant morphological and ecophysiological adaptation to evaluate the biological mechanisms of vegetation changes; (4) perform anatomical determination of plant age and growth rate. We hypothesize that the ongoing climate warming has promoted uphill plant migration in this cold and dry region, so that absolute upper limits, species richness and cover of vascular plants increased in the past decade. The evidences of thermophilization might be overridden by increased frequency of extreme snowfall events producing additional disturbance resulting in reduced species richness and cover
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