Vegetation cover type and avian species changes on landscapes within a wildland-urban interface

Abstract

Probability of occurrence of selected avian species was modeled as a function of modeled changes in landscape cover types in two landscapes to test whether (1) exotic and generalist avian species will continue to increase in an high density rural population landscape; and, (2) native grassland avian species will continue to increase in a low density rural population landscape. Landscape cover types were modeled with logistic regression based on temporal changes between 1966 and 1990. Demographic-economic regression models also were used to predict landscape cover types in year 2014 based on selected independent variables. Logistic regressions were used to model probability of occurrence of selected avian species based on predicted area of landscape cover types in year 2014. Model output of vegetation cover types suggests the continued use of intensive agriculture management practices in the high density rural population landscape while extensive agriculture management practices will maintain the native vegetation component in the low density rural population landscape. Our models suggest continued intensive agriculture practices associated with the high density rural population landscapes will adversely affect native grassland bird species to a greater magnitude than extensive ranching practices in the low density rural population landscapes.