VECM을 이용한 화물자동차 운임 결정요인의 실증 분석

Abstract

In the domestic transportation market, the transportation share of freight cars accounts for 92.6%. In the truck market, real freight rates decreased due to the increase in cost burden due to the increase in prices such as oil prices, and accordingly, overwork, overload, and speeding competition intensified. Accordingly, in 2018, the government implemented a safe fare system as a way to advance cargo transportation and applied it to import and export containers and cement (BCT). Therefore, this study attempted to provide implications for matters to be considered when expanding the safety fare system through time series analysis on the influence of truck fares and various exogenous variables. The research method analyzed the unit root, cointegration test, and VECM of freight rates by tonnage recorded in the actual cargo information network and time series indexes such as domestic economic indicators, industrial indexes, price indexes, and supply indexes. As a result of the analysis, it was confirmed that the exogenous variables affecting the freight rates of each ton class were different, with a positive(+) effect on the whole industry index and import index for trucks of less than 8 tons.