Abstract
BackgroundThe Republic of Ireland has the second highest incidence of BSE worldwide. Only a single case of vCJD has been identified to date.MethodsWe estimate the total future number of clinical cases of vCJD using an established mathematical model, and based on infectivity of bovine tissue calculated from UK data and on the relative exposure to BSE contaminated meat.ResultsWe estimate 1 future clinical case (95% CI 0 – 15) of vCJD in the Republic of Ireland. Irish exposure is from BSE infected indigenous beef products and from imported UK beef products. Additionally, 2.5% of the Irish population was exposed to UK beef through residing in the UK during the 'at-risk' period. The relative proportion of risk attributable to each of these three exposures individually is 2:2:1 respectively.ConclusionsThe low numbers of future vCJD cases estimated in this study is reassuring for the Irish population and for other countries with a similar level of BSE exposure.
Highlights
The Republic of Ireland has the second highest incidence of BSE worldwide
The aim of this study is to estimate the future number of cases of vCJD in Ireland based on exposure to BSEinfected meat and meat products produced in Ireland, those imported to Ireland from the UK, and those consumed by Irish citizens whilst visiting the UK
Our figures for total BSE cases in Great Britain (GB), Northern Ireland (NI) and the Republic of Ireland are representative of the relative level of BSE exposure in Ireland compared to the UK, as all figures above were calculated using the same methodology
Summary
The Republic of Ireland has the second highest incidence of BSE worldwide. Only a single case of vCJD has been identified to date. Public faith in the worldwide scientific community suffered significantly after the announcement in 1996 that a new variant form of CJD was affecting the British public [1] This almost certainly arose as a consequence of eating BSE-infected beef [1-4]. Initial estimates of the potential size of any vCJD epidemic were hampered by lack of knowledge of both the incubation period distribution and the infectiousness of BSE-infected cattle to humans (the species barrier) [7]. Uncertainties regarding these two key parameters resulted in very high initial estimates for the upper limit of any potential epidemic size [7]. This has further reduced upper limits for future cases in the UK to be no greater than 540 cases [10]
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