Abstract
While the National Health Insurance (NHI) will require an increase in health care spending that initially outstrips even projected GDP increases, the level of spending relative to GDP in 14 years’ time (6.2%) will be less than the current total health care spending of 8.5% of the GDP. This is according to preliminary cost estimates in the government’s Green Paper released last month after exhaustive research of similar models world wide and dynamic, ongoing consultation with National Treasury.1 Treasury projects a modest real GDP growth from the existing 3.1% to 3.6% in 2011/2012 and 4.2% in 2012/2013 providing cold comfort for the initial launch of the most ambitious re-engineering of the South African health system ever attempted.
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