Variety of evidence in multimessenger astronomy

Abstract

The confirmation of models in multimessenger astronomy requires variety of evidence. Variety of evidence (VoE) should be understood as an eliminative epistemic principle: where multiple and heterogenous types of evidence converge upon model assumptions or predictions, confidence in the representational accuracy of that model and/or its assumptions is made stronger than if sources of evidence were homogenous. Varied evidence increases confidence indirectly by providing grounds upon which to eliminate under-supported alternatives. I discuss the role VoE reasoning plays in multimessenger astronomy, emphasizing the oft-neglected constraint of chronological evidential support to capture the importance of time series and timescales in astronomy. I then show that in a key case, the convergence of varied types of empirical observations lends confirmatory support to the kilonova model of neutron star mergers.11I would like to thank Elisabeth Lloyd, Gary Ebbs, Kirk Ludwig, Lydia Patton, William Vanderburgh, Suzanne Kawamleh, Dan Li, Ryan O'Loughlin, Steve Mischler, and David McCarty for their invaluable feedback and support on earlier drafts of this work.