Variety distribution pattern and climatic potential productivity of spring maize in Northeast China under climate change

Abstract

This study was based on the daily meteorological data of 101 meteorological stations from 1971 to 2000 and the 0.25°×0.25° grid data from 1951 to 2100 simulated by RegCM3 under the future A1B climatic scenario published by National Climate Center, in combination with the demand of climatic condition for maize growth in Northeast China. The trajectory of agricultural climatic resources and the effects of climate change on variety distribution and climatic potential productivity of spring maize in Northeast China under future climate change were analyzed. The main agro-climatic resource factors include: the initial date daily average temperature stably passing 10°C (⩾10°C), the first frost date, the days of growing period, the ⩾10°C accumulated temperature, and the total radiation and precipitation in the growing period. The results showed that: (1) in the coming 100 years, the first date of ⩾10°C would be significantly advanced, and the first frost date would be delayed. The days of growing period would be extended, the ⩾10°C accumulated temperature and the total radiation would be significantly increased. However, no significant change was found in precipitation. (2) Due to the climate change, the early-maturing varieties will be gradually replaced by late-maturing varieties in Northeast China, and the planting boundaries of several maize varieties would be extended northward and eastward. (3) There would be a significant change in the climatic potential productivity of maize in Northeast China with the high-value gradually moving towards northeast. (4) It was an effective way to increase the climatic potential productivity of maize by appropriate adjustment of sowing date.