Abstract
Time variations of floods in the Neva Bay since the early XVIII century and interannual variations of sea level at Kronshtadt since 1836 are considered. Estimates of their longterm trends are also given. The study presents the results of statistical simulation of the annual values of sea level based on data on atmospheric pressure over southern Finland, the zonal component of wind velocity over the Gulf of Finland, Neva runoff, as well as precipitation and air temperature in St. Petersburg. A simple two-parameter model is proposed for the assessment of sea level by the end of the XXI century under major climate scenarios. The model predictors are World Ocean Level and North Atlantic Oscillation. Estimates of coast inundation zones in Kurortnyi district are given for the surge wave height within the range of 1–6 m.
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