Abstract

ObjectiveTo analyse the epidemiological trends of tuberculosis in the Siberian and Far Eastern federal districts, the areas with the highest disease burden in the Russian Federation.MethodsWe applied principal coordinate analysis to study a total of 68 relevant variables on tuberculosis epidemiology, prevention and control. Data on these variables were collected over 2003–2016 in all 21 regions of the Siberian federal district and Far Eastern federal district (total population: 25.5 million) through the federal and departmental reporting system. We identified the regions with a favourable or unfavourable tuberculosis epidemiological profile and ranked them as low or high priority for specific interventions.FindingsThe median number of tuberculosis notifications in the regions was 123.3 per 100 000 population (range: 54.5–265.7) in 2003, decreasing to 82.3 per 100 000 (range: 52.9–178.3) in 2016. We found large variations in the tuberculosis epidemiological profile across different regions. The principal coordinate analysis revealed that three aggregated indicators accounted for 55% of the variation. The first coordinate corresponded to tuberculosis prevalence and case notifications in the regions; the second to the severity of the disease among patients; and the third to the percentage of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis among tuberculosis patients. The regions where intervention was most urgently needed were Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, Jewish Autonomous Oblast and Tyva Republic.ConclusionThe variability in tuberculosis epidemiology across regions was likely due to differences in the quality of antituberculosis services. Precision in defining necessary interventions, as determined through the principal coordinate analysis approach, can guide focused tuberculosis control efforts.

Highlights

  • During the 1990s the tuberculosis epidemic in the Russian Federation worsened due to an economic recession in the country at that time

  • The tuberculosis situation in the Asian part of the Russian Federation remained less favourable compared with the European part

  • We aimed to identify the variables that are closely correlated and to understand how they interact and contribute to the tuberculosis epidemic in different regions of Siberian and Far Eastern federal districts

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Summary

Introduction

During the 1990s the tuberculosis epidemic in the Russian Federation worsened due to an economic recession in the country at that time. The robust measures to control tuberculosis taken by the government between 2000 and 2010 led to a reduction in case notifications to 48.3 per 100 000 in the population of 144.5 million by 2017. Despite these measures, the tuberculosis situation in the Asian part of the Russian Federation remained less favourable compared with the European part. In the year 2017, tuberculosis case notifications in the Siberian federal district (population: 19.3 million) and Far Eastern federal district (population: 6.1 million) were as high as 83.3 and 86.1 per 100 000 respectively.[1,2,3,4] Identification of the key factors that determine the unfavourable epidemic situation in these districts is a top priority for research. The evidence collected can be used to plan focused interventions

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