Variations in tidal response of the medium in the spatiotemporal neighborhood of catastrophic earthquake in Japan

Abstract

The predictability of catastrophic earthquakes according to data on time variations in tidal response is discussed. We present the results of a harmonic analysis of (1) a one-year record of tide-gauge observations with the use of two long-term vertical seismometers at the MAJO station on Honshu Island near the epicenter of the Mw = 9 catastrophic earthquake of March 11, 2011, and (2) a 0.5-year record of horizontal pendulum observations at the ERM station near Hokkaido Island from March 13, 2010, to March 12, 2011, and from April 26, 2010, to August 3, 2010, respectively. The relative changes in the tidal amplitudes are found to be about 3 and 4%. The identification of distinct prognostic attributes awaits much more representative spatiotemporal statistics. These results can be adequately and reliably interpreted by analyzing “background” variations in the tidal amplitudes at these stations and, in particular, their possible seasonal variations. This requires at least several years of observations.