Abstract
The Eastern Mediterranean (EM) and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are projected to be exposed to extreme climatic conditions in the 21st century, which will likely induce adverse impacts in various sectors. Relevant climate change impact assessments utilise data from climate model projections and process-based impact models or simpler, index-based approaches. In this study, we explore the implied uncertainty from variations of climate change impact-related indices as induced by the modelled climate (WRF regional climate model) from different land surface schemes (Noah, NoahMP, CLM and RUC). The three climate change impact-related indicators examined here are the Radiative Index of Dryness (RID), the Fuel Dryness Index (Fd) and the Water-limited Yield (Yw). Our findings indicate that Noah simulates the highest values for both RID and Fd, while CLM gives the highest estimations for winter wheat Yw. The relative dispersion in the three indices derived by the different land schemes is not negligible, amounting, for the overall geographical domain of 25% for RID and Fd, and 10% for Yw. The dispersion is even larger for specific sub-regions.
Highlights
The region that encompasses the eastern Mediterranean (EM) and the Middle East and NorthAfrica (MENA) is historically exposed to background high temperatures and dryness, which have been intensified in the recent past and are projected to lead to extreme climatic conditions occurring in this geographic location in the 21st century due to anthropogenic radiative forcing [1,2,3]
This study investigated the variations in the estimation of three climate change-related indices from regional climate model output due to different land surface schemes
Six simulations were performed using the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) regional climate models (RCM) over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)-CORDEX domain driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis data for the period of 2000–2010 using four different land surface schemes (LSS) (Noah, NoahMP, Community Land Model (CLM) and Rapid Update Cycle (RUC))
Summary
The region that encompasses the eastern Mediterranean (EM) and the Middle East and North. Africa (MENA) is historically exposed to background high temperatures and dryness, which have been intensified in the recent past and are projected to lead to extreme climatic conditions occurring in this geographic location in the 21st century due to anthropogenic radiative forcing [1,2,3] This will likely induce serious ecosystem and societal impacts in various sectors such as human health, agriculture, tourism, energy production and other areas [1,2,4]. Climate information at high spatial resolution is necessary to fully estimate the regional and local climate change effects, perform impact assessments and design adaptation strategies on a regional or national level [5] This information on a regional scale is so far provided by the regional climate models (RCM), the output of which is affected by different sources of uncertainty [6,7]. The aforementioned indices are calculated using the output of six simulations performed by the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) RCM using four different LSSs (Noah, NoahMP, CLM and RUC) in a total of six sensitivity experiments for the period of 2000–2010 over the MENA-CORDEX domain at a 50-km horizontal resolution
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
