Variations in Erosion Risk in Western Anatolia (Turkey): Modified Fournier Approach

Abstract

As a result of global warming, more intense rainfall events and hence higher flood and erosion risk are expected to occur more likely. As erosion has been an important environmental problem in Turkey, it would be beneficial to document how it changed during global warming era. The aim of this study is to investigate the temporal evoluation of erosion risk from 1950 to 2018 in western Anatolia (Turkey), by using Modified Fournier Index (MFI). Also, temporal patterns of annual average temperature and annual total rainfall were analysed. The results, firstly, showed that the study area has cooled slightly from 1950 to 1976 and strongly warmed afterwards, which is consistent with the temporal pattern of global average temperature. Neither annual total rainfall nor MFI showed statistically significant tendencies during both periods. Erosion risk during the rapid warming period was not different from that in the cooling period. It follows that, on the contrary to the expectation, erosion risk in the study area stayed unchaged while average temperature increased substantially after mid-1970s.