Variational mode decomposition combined fuzzy-Twin support vector machine model with deep learning for solar photovoltaic power forecasting.

Abstract

A novel Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) combined Fuzzy-Twin Support Vector Machine Model with deep learning mechanism is devised in this research study to forecast the solar Photovoltaic (PV) output power in day ahead basis. The raw data from the solar PV farms are highly fluctuating and to extract the useful stable components VMD is employed. A novel Fuzzy–Twin Support Vector Machine (FTSVM) model developed acts as the forecasting model for predicting the solar PV output power for the considered solar farms. The twin support vector machine (SVM) model formulates two separating hyperplanes for predicting the output power and in this research study a fuzzy based membership function identifies most suitable two SVM prediction hyperplanes handling the uncertainties of solar farm data. For the developed, new VMD-FTSVM prediction technique, their optimal parameters for the training process are evaluated with the classic Ant Lion Optimizer (ALO) algorithm. The solar PV output power is predicted using the novel VMD-FTSVM model and during the process multi-kernel functions are utilized to devise the two fuzzy based hyperplanes that accurately performs the prediction operation. Deep learning (DL) based training of the FTSVM model is adopted so that the deep auto-encoder and decoder module enhances the accuracy rate. The proposed combined forecasting model, VMD-ALO-DLFTSVM is validated for superiority based on a two 250MW PV solar farm in India. Results prove that the proposed model outperforms the existing model in terms of the performance metrics evaluated and the forecasted PV Power.