Variation of slip and creep along the levant rift over the past 4500 years

Abstract

Frequency—magnitude relations were established for a fault system embedded in a shear zone with dimensions 1000 km × 200 km that extends from the Gulf of Elat to the East-Anatolian fault. The resulting frequency—magnitude relations were found to be in good agreement with both the documented instrumental earthquake statistics for M L ⩾ 4.5 in the present century and microearthquake activity for M L ⩾ 1.5 recorded in Israel and some adjacent territories during 1976–1979. When these frequency—magnitude relations are extended to 2500 B.C., one can account for the maximal magnitude earthquakes that echo in the Bible and are manifested in archaeological excavations. It is found that seismic slip-rates increase significantly from south toward north in such a way that in north-central Israel and Lebanon, seismic slip constitutes only 1 3 of the motion, the rest being attributed to visco-elastic processes. Further north, as one approaches the collision zone with the Turkish plate, aseismicity tends to disappear and the slip is purely seismic.