Abstract
Abstract. Using a 17-site seasonal precipitation reconstruction from a unique historical archive, Yu-Xue-Fen-Cun, the decadal variations of extreme droughts and floods (i.e., the event with occurrence probability of less than 10 % from 1951 to 2000) in North China were investigated, by considering both the probabilities of droughts/floods occurrence in each site and spatial coverage (i.e., percentage of sites). Then, the possible linkages of extreme droughts and floods with ENSO (i.e., El Niño and La Niña) episodes and large volcanic eruptions were discussed. The results show that there were 29 extreme droughts and 28 extreme floods in North China from 1736 to 2000. For most of these extreme drought (flood) events, precipitation decreased (increased) evidently at most of the sites for the four seasons, especially for summer and autumn. But in drought years of 1902 and 1981, precipitation only decreased in summer slightly, while it decreased evidently in the other three seasons. Similarly, the precipitation anomalies for different seasons at different sites also existed in several extreme flood years, such as 1794, 1823, 1867, 1872 and 1961. Extreme droughts occurred more frequently (2 or more events) during the 1770s–1780s, 1870s, 1900s–1930s and 1980s–1990s, among which the most frequent (3 events) occurred in the 1900s and the 1920s. More frequent extreme floods occurred in the 1770s, 1790s, 1820s, 1880s, 1910s and 1950s–1960s, among which the most frequent (4 events) occurred in the 1790s and 1880s. For the total of extreme droughts and floods, they were more frequent in the 1770s, 1790s, 1870s–1880s, 1900s–1930s and 1960s, and the highest frequency (5 events) occurred in the 1790s. A higher probability of extreme drought was found when El Niño occurred in the current year or the previous year. However, no significant connections were found between the occurrences of extreme floods and ENSO episodes, or the occurrences of extreme droughts/floods and large volcanic eruptions.
Highlights
Extreme climate events, such as droughts and floods, can lead to large impacts on the natural environment and social system, such as water resources, agriculture, economic activity and human health and well-being
We calculate the threshold for probability of 10 %, 20 %, 80 % and 90 % occurrence based on the 17-site precipitation reconstruction series according to a gamma distribution, to identify the year when the severe or extreme drought/flood occurred in the period of 1736–2000
The contingency table and test are performed for other cases with the occurrences of extreme drought or flood events in the North China Plain (NCP) associated with the events of ENSO or large volcanic eruptions, respectively
Summary
Extreme climate events, such as droughts and floods, can lead to large impacts on the natural environment and social system, such as water resources, agriculture, economic activity and human health and well-being. Based on the evidence from observed data since 1950, the IPCC (2012) special report concluded that several regions in the world, southern Europe and West Africa, have experienced more intense and longer droughts; in central North America and northwestern Australia, droughts have become either less frequent, less intense or shorter (with medium confidence). There have been statistically significant increases in the number of heavy precipitation events (e.g., 95th percentile) in more regions than there have been statistically significant decreases over the world. The strong regional and subregional variations exist in both extreme drought and heavy precipitation events. In China it has been shown that droughts appeared more frequently in Northeast China, North China and the eastern part of Northwest China during 1961–2013, with persistent, severe and widespread droughts from the late 1990s to early 2000s.
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