Variation in White House Polling Operations

Abstract

Using an entirely new data source, this article presents evidence that significant variation exists in how much different presidential administrations use private White House polls. Federal Election Commission (FEC) disclosure records reveal the amount of money that presidents since Jimmy Carter paid (through their respective party organizations) to the designated White House pollsters. These financial figures, in turn, roughly correlate with the estimated number of polls commissioned for the White House, as determined through archival research and information provided by the pollsters themselves. Two patterns emerge: some presidents poll heavily from the start of their administrations (Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton); others poll only lightly during the first 3 years in office (Jimmy Carter and George Bush). These findings reinforce scholarly assessments of Reagan and Clinton as pursuing a permanent campaign approach to leadership, whereas Carter and Bush lacked much interest in public relations techniques. Our evidence suggests a need for a refinement of the institutionalization concept as found in the academic literature on White House polling. We agree that all modern presidents inherit sophisticated tools for understanding public opinion, but we demonstrate that they do not use these tools with equal attention or regularity. Put differently, a polling capability has been institutionalized within the White house, but substantial variation still exists in how much a given administration uses that capability.