Variation in the strength and stationarity of southern longleaf pine seasonwood climate-growth relationships

Abstract

Climate change is predicted to cause asymmetric warming and increased precipitation variability across different seasons. These changes and their effects may be captured in subannual seasonwood measures of tree growth (i.e., earlywood, latewood). Longleaf pine is a foundational tree species throughout the broad southeastern U.S. Its latewood growth may be more variable and sensitive to climate change than earlywood, but prior studies have geographical and ecological sampling limitations. Here, we use dendroecological methods to develop ring-width and seasonwood (earlywood, latewood, and adjusted latewood) chronologies and analyze climate-growth relationships for longleaf pine from eight sites in the Southern Coastal Plain of Florida, USA. Sites spanned a range of environmental conditions to generate an ecologically representative dataset. We evaluated chronology strength and variability and determined monthly and seasonal correlations with precipitation and temperature. We furthermore evaluated climate-growth stationarity using a moving response function and bootstrapped transfer function stability tests. We found adjusted latewood chronologies were most climatically sensitive although totalwood chronologies had higher interseries correlations. Totalwood measurements were more variable than early- or latewood year to year. Tree growth was positively correlated with summer precipitation at six out of eight sites and negatively correlated with late summer maximum temperatures at six out of eight sites. Negative relationships between growth and maximum temperature occurred earlier in the year at southern sites and the positive effect of June precipitation on tree growth was notable, found at six out of eight sites. However, the strength and significance of climate-growth relationships were non-stationary through space and time, with shifts largely occurring post-1950s. Longleaf pine at its southern range extent was less sensitive to climate than more northern populations, which may indicate non-linear responses to warming captured at the species’ range margin. Our results highlight dynamic climate-growth relationships related to the broad range of environmental conditions where longleaf pine is found.