Variation in the sea level, ice concentration and ice drift speed near northern land archipelago in the autumn-winter period

Abstract

Complicated ice conditions, which are typical of many areas of the Northern Sea Route, limit the possibilities for navigation and development of hydrocarbon deposits. Therefore, the development of ideas about the influence of natural factors on their changes is an urgent problem of oceanography, hydrography and water transport. The solution of this problem is of greatest interest for the highest latitude regions of this route, located near the Norther Land archipelago for the period from October to December. One of the reasons for the change in the ice cover is ice drift caused by surface currents, which also affect the topography of the water surface. Taking this into account, the study confirmed the hypothesis according to which in these areas a significant effect on changes in the ice cover in October-December can be exerted by variations in the topography of the water surface. The study used the standard methods of mathematical statistics. The significance of statistical relationships of interannual changes, average monthly levels and concentration of the ice cover in different parts of the water area with variations in the zonal components of ice drift speed were assessed. The results of GLORYS12.v1 and ICDC reanalizations were used as a data source. It was found that this influence is clearly manifested in the Vilkitsky Strait and the western part of the Laptev Sea. The revealed change trends for ice drift speed allow for the prediction of further improvement in navigation conditions in October and November.