Abstract
PurposeThis research seeks to examine whether the dose–response relationship between incarceration length and recidivism varies across different conviction offense categories and measures of parole failure. MethodsWe approximate a large fixed panel of parolees from the National Corrections Reporting Program (NCRP) to implement a dose–response analysis of the relationship between incarceration length and the prevalence and timing of recidivism. Marginal mean weighting through stratification (MMW-S) is utilized to limit confounding effects from selection bias. ResultsWe observe that incremental doses of incarceration length increase the likelihood and hasten the timing of parole revocations, and reduce the likelihood and slow the timing of new sentences. Considerable heterogeneity was observed in these effects across conviction offenses, as the direction of effects changed beyond certain thresholds, and was not constant across offender groups. ConclusionsThese results do not provide consistent support for a suppressive, criminogenic, or null effect for incarceration length on recidivism.
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